Comments on: bubble bubble toil and trouble

By: Beginning to look a lot like Hugetember - HugePoker

Beginning to look a lot like Hugetember - HugePoker — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 09:21:48 +0000

[...] the first Step 6 tournament I played and won … first describing the tournament itself, and then a long post with an analysis of the bubble hands from the tournament, with some great back and forth with some of my readers [...]

By: huge

huge — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 08:40:08 +0000

Pete - I don’t think anyone would think Octavian is pushing a wide range because he got ”caught” pushing AT into an 8BB short stack on the bubble. I see him turn over AT there and think ”wow, he actually has a hand - that’s surprising”. woltas is clearly the most experienced at this level of Sit-n-Go play, and I wouldn’t expect him to adjust his assessment of Oct’s shoving range because he saw him make a correct shove. I just ran the numbers that I hinted at - even if woltas thinks Octavian is pushing any 2 cards in this spot, then KTo is an absolute tossup as to whether or not it’s a call. If anything if I’m woltas I’m thinking ”ok he just got a bite taken out of his big stack, he’s gonna be a little scared to lose more of it - but wait, he’s shoving anyway - my KTo is crap”. I just can’t explain his call at all - seems very bad to me.

By: Pete

Pete — Mon, 25 Aug 2008 22:40:33 +0000

(I wrote this before the previous comments came in, but sometimes my browser doesn’t want to let me post comments, for some reason…)

So, 123 seems the key mistake hand, but I think it has as much to do with perception than reality.

Starting on 122, the reality is that Octavian made a standard play and got unlucky. The perception, however, might be that he put his money in dominated, and got what he deserved. (Especially from someone unfamiliar with bubble principal.) Specifically BECAUSE his hand was dominated may make the A-T look weaker than it really is. Thus, giving the perception that he is pushing with weaker hands.

Shouldn’t that push him further in the dirction of a fold on hand 123? Psychologically, his opponents now see him as ’losing’ and possibly on tilt. Whether or not he IS on tilt, it seems reasonable for the rest of the players to think he is, and call lighter than normal. It seems like this is exactly what happened.

Would Woltas have called if Dirty had pushed instead of Octaivian on hand 123?

Since dirty was just a ’winner’ on the previous hand and had shown AK making his perceived range seem stronger.

It’s getting away from the math and into ”you’re only as good or bad as the last 2 cards people saw.”

By: Ace

Ace — Mon, 25 Aug 2008 22:30:54 +0000

Before I asked my question about the AJ hand, I looked at the Nash and was shocked, SHOCKED about how weak AJ is there. I would have called that in a pico second.

So your analysis has really opened my eyes there.

By: huge

huge — Mon, 25 Aug 2008 22:08:08 +0000

I just wrote a reply to V7i7c’s comment about hand 101 - it’s in italics below my original analysis of the hand.

By: V7i7c

V7i7c — Mon, 25 Aug 2008 20:30:12 +0000

Just saw your response to Ace’s question and it left my head spinning. I need another donut….

By: V7i7c

V7i7c — Mon, 25 Aug 2008 20:25:12 +0000

Wonderful post Huge! I definitely will have to boost my testosterone intake substantially to have a prayer of a chance at making Nash smile at my play. Your thinking AND play seems sound to me at every step. I think the toughest lay down you made was on 101 in the face of that weird raise while holding K7 suited. I would have been sorely tempted to shove, but being the Amateur Donkey King that I am, I would probably be shaking to much from fear to push my chips (or click the button) and put my tourney life on the line with what looks like a pretty marginal hand.

Thanks for taking the time to write your thoughts out like this- I learned more from this post than the Harrington series coverage of late tourney play.

By: huge

huge — Mon, 25 Aug 2008 19:55:10 +0000

I just wrote a long reply to Ace’s question about hand 106 - it’s edited into the post in italics right before hand 107. The simple answer is that I would fold AJ if he shoved instead of raising, but the question sparked a lot of interesting ideas and made me research a couple of preconceptions - good stuff.

By: Pete

Pete — Mon, 25 Aug 2008 16:22:32 +0000

And the answer is: MOSTLY BAD LUCK. Great post! I had written on a post-it to point out that #103 was a 1-outer on the river (which I hadn’t noticed watching the video yesterday), but Ace beat me to it. (Even at 2 outs, it’s pretty sick!) Thanks.

By: Ace

Ace — Mon, 25 Aug 2008 16:00:49 +0000

That was the classic 1 outer on the river on hand 103…Fugly.

On 106 do you fold your AJ in BB if he shoves?

Awesome post…I could ignore the tornado sirens wailing in the background as the remnants of Fay caused some twisters around us.